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"Played For a Draw, But Could Win"

Candidates': Karjakin missed a chance to win and get closer to the leader

"I was worse the entire game and close to time control sacrificed an exchange to ensure a draw," Sergey Karjakin said about his 11th round game against Veselin Topalov.  "But suddenly it turned out I had chances to win..." 

Both GMs were trying to understand if Black missed a winning line somewhere, no clear conclusion was reached. 

Preliminary analyses shows there really was a winning line at one point:

TOPALOV - KARJAKIN

Here Karjakin played 45...Bf2 and after 46.Rh8 Kg7 47.Rh5 Kg6 48.Kc2 he could do nothing.
No win is seen after a recommended by computer 45...Bg1 because of 46.Rf8+ Kg7 47.Rd8 with equality.

The only way to the victory is: 45...a3!! 46.Kc2 Be3!. Sergey had to find a winning combination with bishop on f4 and then White is unable to defend from several threats at a time: except passed-pawns there's also e5-е4 breakthrough and king marching to d3.
Now in case of 47.Rh8, there's 47...e4! 48.fxe4 Ke5, аnd if White playes 47.Rf8+, there's 47...Ke6 48.Re8+ (48.Ra8 а2! 49.Kb2 Bf4! - exactly this move is needed for maintaining the threat of h4-h3) Kd7 49.Ra8 Kc7! with decisive advantage.

Topalov, Veselin
2014.03.26
Karjakin, Sergey
Khanty-Mansiysk RUS
1/2-1/2
FIDE Candidates 2014 (11.2)
 

1. Nf3 Nf6 2. c4 b6 3. g3 c5 4. Bg2 Bb7 5. O-O g6 6. d4 cxd4 7. Qxd4 Bg7 8. Nc3 d6 9. Rd1 Nbd7 10. Be3 Rc8 11. Rac1 a6 12. b3 O-O 13. Qh4 Rc7 14. g4 Rc8 15. g5 Nh5 16. Ne4 Rc7 17. Ng3 Nxg3 18. hxg3 Qa8 19. Ne1 Nc5 20. Qh1 Rfc8 21. Bxb7 Qxb7 22. Qxb7 Rxb7 23. Nd3 Nxd3 24. exd3 f6 25. gxf6 Bxf6 26. a4 h5 27. b4 Kf7 28. Kg2 Ke6 29. Kf3 Rf8 30. Ke2 Kf5 31. f3 g5 32. Rh1 Kg6 33. Rc2 e5 34. b5 Ra8 35. a5 bxa5 36. b6 Bd8 37. Rb1 Rab8 38. Ra2 Bxb6 39. Rab2 Bxe3 40. Rxb7 Rxb7 41. Rxb7 Bc5 42. Rb8 a4 43. Kd1 h4 44. Rg8 Kf6 45. g4 Bf2 46. Rh8 Kg7 47. Rh5 Kg6 48. Kc2 Bd4 49. Kb1 a3 50. Ka2 Bb2 51. Kb3 Bc1 52. Ka2 Bb2 53. Kb3 a5 54. Ka2 a4 55. Kb1 Bd4 56. Ka2 Bb2 57. Kb1 Bd4